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Prediction for CME (2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-21T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29690/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 3614 (~N30E30) starting around 2024-03-21T18:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well, with post eruptive dimming visible around 19:00Z in SDO AIA 193. This CME was likely swept into the front of 2024-03-23T01:25Z and 2024-03-23T01:48Z O-type CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-25T17:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Mar 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
...
Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region
3614 (N17E18, Dsc/beta) beginning after ~21/1730 UTC. An additional
filament eruption was observed from the SW quadrant beginning after
~21/1830 UTC. Both events have been modeled with the latter being a
clear miss ahead of Earth's orbit and the former delivering a glancing
blow by late on 25 Mar.

Lead Time: 81.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-03-22T07:14Z

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